Currently, the carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere are increasing faster than ever. The current carbon dioxide levels are close to the ones, which were calculated would lead to the melting of the ice sheet of Antarctica – with catastrophic consequences for the sea level. The changes are already worryingly happening in Arctic regions.[1] In the year 2017, for example, an Arctic iceberg, that was 55-times the size of Paris, detached.[2]
But climate change has much more disastrous and complex consequences than the rise of sea level. U.S. journalist David Wallace-Wells described the predictions for the upcoming years in his article „The unhabitable Earth“ in detail. He extracted the data from uncountable scientific studies and papers, interviewed scientists and climatologists. In 2017, the article became the most read article in the history of the New York Times Magazine, and it was quoted to in many publications.
First of all, the earth is heating up way faster than official institutions had predicted e.g., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In comparison to pre-industrial levels, the average global temperature has already increased 1.2 degrees Celsius. Indeed, regarding the international climate agreement of Paris, global warming was aimed to stay below 2 degrees until the year 2100. But with the current course, global temperature will increase by 4 or even 8 degrees Celsius.[3] In August 2021, this was also confirmed by the IPCC with their own publication, which presented first, results of the IPCC report for 2022. According to new calculations, the 1.5-degree limit will be crossed in the upcoming 20 years, if no instant and comprehensive measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken.[4]
Wallace-Wells emphasized in his article that already today, global warming has caused unpreceded temperature records, droughts, flood disasters and extreme weather phenomena. Another problem is the defrost of the permafrost soil, an ever-frozen area that spreads over 20 % of the planet’s surface from the Arctic over Scandinavia to Siberia. With the defrost, vast amounts of carbon trapped in the permafrost soil will enter the atmosphere in the form of methane. Methane is even more climate effecting than carbon dioxide, which means that global warming will be dramatically intensified. The defrost of the soil has already started in Siberia where 70 billion tons of carbon is buried.[5]
A temperature increase of 4 to 8 degrees Celsius will cause a mass extinction and therefore, the deletion of almost all life on earth. Firstly, this is due to the global warming in of itself. All mammals including humans must have a consistent body temperature. Also, we can keep our body temperature at 37 degrees Celsius by sweating or cooling down from outside, we can only do this to a certain point. In reality, temperature increase of 4 degrees Celsius would already cause the death of many people. An increase of 6 degrees would change temperatures in New York to those of today’s Bahrain. An increase of 7 degrees would make parts of the world especially around the equator uninhabitable. And with an increase of 11 to 12 degrees, 50 % of the world’s population as it’s segmented currently would die instantly due to the heat.[6]
An additional cause for a potential mass extinction is the food supply. On the one hand, the world population is growing bigger and bigger – since the Second World War it has tripled. On the other hand, regarding scientific calculations, agricultural yields are declining by 10 % per degree global temperature increase. This, in theory, means that at the end of the century probably 50 % more people will have to be fed with 50% less food. The decline of agricultural yields happens because droughts are spreading into new regions. On top of all this comes a global water shortage and the destruction of the soil and biodiversity by monocultures and de-forestation.
Additionally, disease increases. According to the research of Wallace-Wells, certain viruses have been enclosed in the Arctic’s ice for billions of years. They go back to times where humans did not exist yet. Therefore, it is uncertain how we will react to these viruses when they are set free by global warming. Viruses like e.g., the bubonic plague or the Spanish flue are assumed to be in the permafrost soil of Alaska and Siberia. Also, existing illnesses will spread geographically due to climate change. Epidemiologists are expecting a dissemination of dengue fever and malaria until the temperature latitudes, meaning to Europe, too.[7]
But the global air pollution is increasing as well. The pollutants are from natural and man-made origin. The smog of carbon dioxide, exhaust gases and other pollutants lead, especially in major cities and urban areas, to sicknesses and death. Here, the high traffic level and industry are mainly responsible for the emissions. Wallace-Wells reminds of the so-called “Airpocalypse” in China. In the year 2013, airports were closed there due to the smog and people were sent to hospitals with raspatory problems. A third of all the annual causalities were traced back to the high air pollution. Over in all, 7.3 million people die worldwide per year due to the consequences of air pollution.
But it gets worse: there is also the threat that the oxygen levels of the air is declining. 20 % of the earths oxygen originates from the rain forest in the Amazon region. There, the timber stand is already affected now but could decline even more due to global warming. With the increase of temperature, the danger of forest fires, which also release vast amounts of carbon, is increasing due to the dryness. But it’s to be feared as well that the majority of marine life will be lost. Due to the acidification of the oceans and the industrial fishing industry, coral reefs and other important parts of the underwater world, which are responsible for 40 % of the global oxygen production, are becoming extinct.[8]
Already today, 31.5 million people have been driven away from their homes by natural disasters like storms and floods. The numbers of climate refugees are currently toping the number of refugees who are fleeing from war and terror. And these numbers will increase enormously with the rise of sea levels and long drought periods as well as the degradation of the water supply.[9] Not to mention the mass emigration that will be caused by climate-related wars. Of course, climate change is not responsible for all wars but in combination with other factors it can lead to tremendous consequences, the war in Syria is an often-mentioned example. Their fading resources like oil, water, agricultural soil and ores also come in as a factor. In the future, countries will fight over their control and possession. Already now, China has bought large areas in North America, Africa, Asia and Australia to cultivate food.[10]
Of course, all of this sounds catastrophic. It seems as if it’s already too late and humanity is doomed. But articles like the one of Wallace-Wells are intended to sensibilize for the topic climate change and to raise awareness for it. Because only if people recognize problems like global relationships, will they be able to see and act against the danger of the climate crisis as well as the injustice and suffering caused. As a result, activism should arise that concentrates on the dangers of the climate catastrophe. Initiatives like the Extinction Rebellion, which are directly addressing governments with claims of measures for climate protection, are leading the way and setting an example.[11] Our current systems of politics and economy have let into an existential dead end. Therefore, the questioning and averting of the mainstream, consumer-oriented behavior that supports these harmful systems is also part of activism, in short; changing one’s own lifestyle to be more sustainable. This can happen in all parts of life, for example traveling applying the Slow Travel methods.
[1] See Chomsky, Noam (2021): Rebellion oder Untergang! Ein Aufruf zu globalem Ungehorsam zur Rettung unserer Zivilisation, Frankfurt am Main, p. 20 – 22.
[2] See Dion, Cyril (2019): Kurze Anleitung zur Rettung der Erde. Wofür wir heute kämpfen müssen, Ditzingen, p. 18.
[3] See Ibid. p. 15 – 17.
[4] See IPCC (2021): Climate change widespread, rapid, and intensifying – IPCC, In: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/08/IPCC_WGI-AR6-Press-Release_en.pdf , p. 1 (11.08.2021).
[5] See Dion, Cyril (2019): Kurze Anleitung zur Rettung der Erde. Wofür wir heute kämpfen müssen, Ditzingen, p. 18.
[6] See Ibid. p. 20.
[7] See Ibid. p. 20 – 21.
[8] See Ibid. p. 23.
[9] See Chomsky, Noam (2021): Rebellion oder Untergang! Ein Aufruf zu globalem Ungehorsam zur Rettung unserer Zivilisation, Frankfurt am Main, p. 23 – 24.
[10] See Dion, Cyril (2019): Kurze Anleitung zur Rettung der Erde. Wofür wir heute kämpfen müssen, Ditzingen, p. 24.
[11] See Chomsky, Noam (2021): Rebellion oder Untergang! Ein Aufruf zu globalem Ungehorsam zur Rettung unserer Zivilisation, Frankfurt am Main, p. 76.
Article by Anika Neugart.